Friday, 17 March 2017

Cycling is getting safer In London

I've fact checked the recent Hackney Cycling Campaign's cycle safety press release . In this Blog I describe what you can reasonably discern from the published statistics on cycling.

Firstly, you can only meaningfully consider casualty rates from a London wide perspective, because although we know how many casualties there are in each borough each year, there is no reliable cycling volume statistic available for individual boroughs. 

Transport for London (TfL) publish estimated cycling trips statistics for the whole of London in their annual statistical publications Though it must be noted that this is a statistic of trips, not miles travelled. These are available on their website. The Department for Transport (DfT) publish the Met police statistics of collisions and casualties. This data is also available on the TfL site.

The growth in cycling trips is shown in the graph below. Cycling more than doubled between 1995 and 2015. (The upturn is associated with the introduction of congestion charging in early 2003.) 

Volume of cycling in London (Estimated number of trips) since 1995

During the same time, 1995 to 2015, the number of cycling casualties (all severities, minor to fatal) dipped and then rose again. These figures are shown in the graph below.

Absolute casualty figures since 1995

These statistics can be represented on the same graph by equating both of the 1995 figures to 100 and showing the following years relative to 100. 

The resulting graph shows how cycling has risen as casualty numbers remain broadly constant.

Cycling trips have increased whilst casualty figures have remained constant since 1995

The same representation can be repeated with the data on serious and fatal injuries. These are smaller numbers and so there is more variation.

Cycling trips and serious and fatal injuries between 1995 and 2015

And also with fatalities only. Here there is even more variability when comparing one year to the next.

Cycling trips and casualties between 1995 and 2015, indexed to 100

A reasonable conclusion from these statistics is that cycling is getting safer in London.

No comments:

Post a Comment